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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:41 pm 
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deviljets wrote:

I know this is going to come off as negative, but that .559 post-ASB pace required the following:

1. The "Big 3" pitching to a 2.17 ERA. Only 10 pitchers total over the last 9 years have pitched to an ERA of 2.17 or better.

2. Add in Matz/Vargas, your projected 4 and 5 starters, the post-ASB ERA was 2.86. The best team ERA from starters this year was the Astros at 3.16. The last team with an ERA of 2.95 or better from their starters was the 2011 Phillies at 2.86

3. You had three hitters in Conforto, Nimmo and McNeil hitting at all-star levels. Other than Conforto, I wouldn't bet money on any of them matching those numbers in 2019. I don't think Nimmo's on-base percentage is sustainable with that kind of K rate and while we all like what McNeil did, I'm not ready to pencil him (or anyone) to hit .330.

Can this team contend with the right moves? Absolutely. But anything using the 2nd half as proof that makings of a contender are already there are bracing for disappointment.


Excellent points overall. Very similar to my point of view. They have a shot. Far from a sure thing or even a team to bet on, but the upside is legit both hitting and pitching. (Fielding looks weak no matter what, but with good pitching/hitting, you can live with that).

No team should throw in the towel just because it looks uncertain, and there are seasons when I've been all for throwing in the towel before the season started, selling and rebuilding, but they have a shot in 2019.

I say that, knowing that they could end up wining 77 games again, but I see too much talent not to try for playoffs right now. Make a few signings, maybe a trade, and hope the balls bounce right. 2019 could be a fun year.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:14 pm 
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General Manager

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You say it could be fun we have the talent and all, but right there near the end is the key - "Make a few signings, maybe a trade...".

Yes that's what people are saying. They don't have the team to compete without moves. But some people want to roll out the same guys and that's not going to work.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:16 pm 
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It also Included No late season help from the outside. They even traded their closer. Bringing in reinforcements could add some wins

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:01 pm 
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I think this is the essential argument

Team half empty wants to trade part of the young core - give up on 2019 and probably 2020 - with the idea of building a better winning foundation 2021 and beyond

Team half full wants us to build upon the existing young core. Make moves that improve the team for 2019 and beyond

I don’t think team half full wants the status quo. The young core had 100 million dollar worth of players that did nothing to help them. That’s the problem that needs to be fixed.

If a new GM comes in here and determines the best course for the long term plan for a winning foundation is trading deGrom and Wheeler - I’ll be open minded and hopefull - we should definitely get some exciting young talent

But my first hope is to try and sign up our young core long term and compliment them with better acquisitions


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:37 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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bygranddesign wrote:
I think this is the essential argument

Team half empty wants to trade part of the young core - give up on 2019 and probably 2020 - with the idea of building a better winning foundation 2021 and beyond

Team half full wants us to build upon the existing young core. Make moves that improve the team for 2019 and beyond

I don’t think team half full wants the status quo. The young core had 100 million dollar worth of players that did nothing to help them. That’s the problem that needs to be fixed.

If a new GM comes in here and determines the best course for the long term plan for a winning foundation is trading deGrom and Wheeler - I’ll be open minded and hopefull - we should definitely get some exciting young talent

But my first hope is to try and sign up our young core long term and compliment them with better acquisitions

Extending deGrom and Wheeler should be the top priority of the new baseball honcho.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:18 am 
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Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:14 am
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HeyNowHK wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
I think this is the essential argument

Team half empty wants to trade part of the young core - give up on 2019 and probably 2020 - with the idea of building a better winning foundation 2021 and beyond

Team half full wants us to build upon the existing young core. Make moves that improve the team for 2019 and beyond

I don’t think team half full wants the status quo. The young core had 100 million dollar worth of players that did nothing to help them. That’s the problem that needs to be fixed.

If a new GM comes in here and determines the best course for the long term plan for a winning foundation is trading deGrom and Wheeler - I’ll be open minded and hopefull - we should definitely get some exciting young talent

But my first hope is to try and sign up our young core long term and compliment them with better acquisitions

Extending deGrom and Wheeler should be the top priority of the new baseball honcho.


I really doubt that happens. The time to extend Wheeler was before the 2018 season. Wheeler now knows how good he can be and in his mind "if I can stay healthy for one more year, I will get a huge pay day". The Mets are going to have to pay him as if he was a free agent because I really doubt he takes a discount extension.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:15 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
I really doubt that happens. The time to extend Wheeler was before the 2018 season. Wheeler now knows how good he can be and in his mind "if I can stay healthy for one more year, I will get a huge pay day". The Mets are going to have to pay him as if he was a free agent because I really doubt he takes a discount extension.


He's also watched firsthand as Matt Harvey played himself down from nine figures to seven, so he ought to be able to see the risk versus reward in taking a longer-term deal at a bit below what he would get on the open market. "If I can stay healthy" is a real question for a guy who usually hasn't been healthy.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:08 pm 
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deviljets wrote:
degromination wrote:
I'm not ready to say they are contenders, but I'm glad they kept the arms, because I think they are closer than some of the naysayers would have you believe.

They played .559 ball after the break, 4 out of 6 months were .500 or better, finished one win away from being a .500 team on the road, and were only outclassed head to head within the division by the Braves. They were awful in 1-run games, which features a lot of luck, with some help from bad bullpen and poor managerial decisions of course (where we obviously have PLENTY of room for improvement). Once again, injuries bit us, but the rotation as a whole does seem to be finding their stride regarding taking care of their bodies. And as much as Bruce and Vargas sucked, they were fine in the second half once healthy.

This isn't just a hot start and degromination shining up a turd of a team. It's a team that can provide entetraining ball, in a division without a dominant team. I'll take those odds.


I know this is going to come off as negative, but that .559 post-ASB pace required the following:

1. The "Big 3" pitching to a 2.17 ERA. Only 10 pitchers total over the last 9 years have pitched to an ERA of 2.17 or better.

2. Add in Matz/Vargas, your projected 4 and 5 starters, the post-ASB ERA was 2.86. The best team ERA from starters this year was the Astros at 3.16. The last team with an ERA of 2.95 or better from their starters was the 2011 Phillies at 2.86

3. You had three hitters in Conforto, Nimmo and McNeil hitting at all-star levels. Other than Conforto, I wouldn't bet money on any of them matching those numbers in 2019. I don't think Nimmo's on-base percentage is sustainable with that kind of K rate and while we all like what McNeil did, I'm not ready to pencil him (or anyone) to hit .330.

Can this team contend with the right moves? Absolutely. But anything using the 2nd half as proof that makings of a contender are already there are bracing for disappointment.


Even though deGrom pitched unbelievably, Mets record was 14-18 in his starts. Pretty easy to think that will improve.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Franchise Player

Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:30 pm
Posts: 3616
HeyNowHK wrote:
FWIW:

Quote:
Paul: As a Mets fan, tell me why Chaim Bloom isn’t the perfect GM candidate

Jeff Sullivan: Can’t. He is


=D> [-o<


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:35 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:11 am
Posts: 26346
Location: NYC
piazzafan wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
I think this is the essential argument

Team half empty wants to trade part of the young core - give up on 2019 and probably 2020 - with the idea of building a better winning foundation 2021 and beyond

Team half full wants us to build upon the existing young core. Make moves that improve the team for 2019 and beyond

I don’t think team half full wants the status quo. The young core had 100 million dollar worth of players that did nothing to help them. That’s the problem that needs to be fixed.

If a new GM comes in here and determines the best course for the long term plan for a winning foundation is trading deGrom and Wheeler - I’ll be open minded and hopefull - we should definitely get some exciting young talent

But my first hope is to try and sign up our young core long term and compliment them with better acquisitions

Extending deGrom and Wheeler should be the top priority of the new baseball honcho.


I really doubt that happens. The time to extend Wheeler was before the 2018 season. Wheeler now knows how good he can be and in his mind "if I can stay healthy for one more year, I will get a huge pay day". The Mets are going to have to pay him as if he was a free agent because I really doubt he takes a discount extension.

Before the 2018 season, Wheeler was barely hanging on to a major league roster spot. An extension of Wheeler prior to the 2018 season was inconceivable.

An extension is possible now provided that both sides get something they want out of a deal.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:20 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:31 pm
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To me the Mets are a lot like the NYG right now. You see the names and you can point to moments that seem like they should be good but the record and play doesn’t match the names. It isn’t bad luck over the last 2 years they are just bad.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019
PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:43 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Before the 2018 season, Wheeler was barely hanging on to a major league roster spot. An extension of Wheeler prior to the 2018 season was inconceivable.

An extension is possible now provided that both sides get something they want out of a deal.


agreed. no way you sign him before the season. Besides coming off a poor season in 2017, he was injured the previous 2 seasons and didn't even play. This is a case in which you count your blessing that Zack has finally put it all together and you try to get a deal done.

But a deal has to be done within the context of a pitcher who doesn't have an established track record.

If the Mets offer 4 years 50 million (12.5 million per) - the Mets are taking on risk but also have the potential of great upside from that deal

Wheeler takes on risk if he turns that deal down if he gets injured or has a bad year

Ultimately I don't think a deal will get done - Wheeler will want to prove that he has turned that corner and get that huge pay day and the Mets will not want to take on the risk of signing him long term at the type of price that it will take without seeing him prove it again.

I think the Mets and the new GM would be better off really concentrating on signing deGrom, Thor and Conforto

Especially Conforto ... I think this is the best chance to get him at a good price. He had a down year and he has 3 arb years ahead of him. Sign him to five years (buying out 2 free agency years) for 60 million. Mets get a great deal - especially if you think he is an easy 3.5-4 WAR per year player. And he is now a millionaire for life with a chance at age 30 to get another big contract. Win-Win.


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