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 Post subject: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:40 am 
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This probably has been talked about here and there but I was curious what the board's opinion is on this guy? He's been worth 2 fWAR in less than half a season, which, needless to say, is impressive. That level of production is obviously hard to sustain but is the bat legit? I've read stuff about his defense not being good. How much of a concern is it? Would love to hear everyone's thoughts.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:57 am 
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The Prodigy wrote:
This probably has been talked about here and there but I was curious what the board's opinion is on this guy? He's been worth 2 fWAR in less than half a season, which, needless to say, is impressive. That level of production is obviously hard to sustain but is the bat legit? I've read stuff about his defense not being good. How much of a concern is it? Would love to hear everyone's thoughts.


Fangraphs had an article this morning about his production. He has the second most fWAR for NL roomies since the All Star break (and I think is 12th in the NL in that time frame).

I'm really impressed with his plate approach and ability to hit a line drive off of just about anything in the strike zone.

His defense has been better than I expected at the ML level so far, but he's going to be a negative defender. Combine him with Alonso at 1B and the Mets are going to have some ground ball issues, though shifting should help with that againstpull-haply LHB.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:00 pm 
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He's certainly passed the eye test in the field. He had a couple shaky moments his first week in the big leagues, but has looked really good whenever I've seen him ever since then.

Metric-wise he quickly fell to -2 DRS, but is currently sitting right at 0. Obviously that is a massive upgrade over Asdrubal, one of the worst defenders in baseball.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:05 pm 
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Yeah, why not.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:12 pm 
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His BABIP is .367, which is probably unsustainable. That being said, I fully expect he and Rosario to be at the top of the order at the beginning of next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:17 pm 
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I'm not jumping to buy him out of his Arbitration years, but I'm okay if he's in the lineup today.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:18 pm 
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He is so LEGIT that he changes everything for this club.

Weak farm system? Wrong - it just produced a 3 win player

Payroll problems? Wrong - 2B, SS, 2 OFs and mid season 1B all make peanuts

Now the talent base is wide enough and the money is there to acquire more. Competing in
2019 in a serious possibility, where in July it sounded foolish to try.

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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:27 pm 
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Funny thing is how people talk about a "core" here and start with McNeil. Meanwhile the guy wasn't even a blip on anyone's radar until May. Seriously, I don't think he was in the mlb Mets top 30 (he was 38 on our list) entering the season. Not to get out in front of my skis but this is a guy on a 5+ win pace. That is a major find dropping in your lap.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:31 pm 
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Semi-legit. He's unlikely to be a .340 hitter, but if going forward he realistically puts up something like .290/.350/.420, I think he'll be a good cheap option for the next 2-3 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:37 pm 
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sure he's not keeping a .340 batting average but I'll raise your projection Max .300 .365 .465

Don't short change "REAL DEAL" McNeil!


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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:38 pm 
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MookieWouldaBeatIt wrote:
He is so LEGIT that he changes everything for this club.

Weak farm system? Wrong - it just produced a 3 win player

Payroll problems? Wrong - 2B, SS, 2 OFs and mid season 1B all make peanuts

Now the talent base is wide enough and the money is there to acquire more. Competing in
2019 in a serious possibility, where in July it sounded foolish to try.



Bold just isn't accurate. 92.5 million committed BEFORE arbitration for DeGrom, Wilmer, Wheeler, Thor, Matz, Conforto and post 2019 58 million committed MINUS Zack Wheeler, Frazier, Lagares and Wilmer + arbitration for Thor, DeGrom, Lugo, Matz, Gsellman, Nimmo, Plawecki, Conforto. The Mets 2019 payroll is well over 100 million before any additions. 2020 Mets currently have 55.5 million committed to 3 players. Wright, Cespedes, Bruce...

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 Post subject: Re: Jeff McNeil: Legit?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:19 pm 
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I think his hit tool is super legit. He also has a K rate below 10% which is absurd for this era. I do think he will hit for more power so I do expect the K rate to rise but iirc, he really hasn’t had a K rate over 13% in his minor league career which is insane.

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