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 Post subject: Pythagorean records
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:44 am 
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Mets are 2 games behind projection (69-78, verus 71-76)

Mariners are projected for Mets actual record (69-78)...but are 81-66. I don't think I have ever seen that extent of a flip. Rockies are 7 ahead of the pythagorean.

Sox are 6 ahead of Pyth.

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 Post subject: Re: Pythagorean records
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:48 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Mets are 2 games behind projection (69-78, verus 71-76)

Mariners are projected for Mets actual record (69-78)...but are 81-66. I don't think I have ever seen that extent of a flip. Rockies are 7 ahead of the pythagorean.

Sox are 6 ahead of Pyth.


12 might be up there close to a record. Not sure. The 2007 Diamondbacks had an 11 and the 2014 A's an 11 in the opposite direction. I remember talking about them being better than their record. They sold at the deadline anyway.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2014.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2007.shtml

7s and 6s happen fairly often.

Pythag is based on runs scored vs runs against. The mets are -22, which isn't awful, it comes to 5 games below 500.

Take away their 24-4 win and they're -42 runs, probably 9 or 10 games below 500 in pythag. 1 ugly game can swing a pythag 4 games. A team that wins a lot of 2-1 games and loses a handful of 12-2 games can have a wining record but a losing pythag, but I may be overthinking it.

I'm not sure how valuable a stat it is, though I do think the teams that have the biggest run differentials are the best teams. Houston & Boston are 1 & 2. Yankees 3. Dodgers are 5 or 6, their Pythag is 8 wins better than their record, which sucks for them I suppose.

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 Post subject: Re: Pythagorean records
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:43 pm 
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Pyth is pretty meaningless. It's based merely on run differential and runs are a byproduct of sequencing which is arguably random. By base runs (underlying peripherals) which is more sequencing neutral, if you will, the Mets record would be the same as they've played the games to. So basically they are what their record says they are.


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 Post subject: Re: Pythagorean records
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:46 am 
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Such a weird and wasted season.

NL East Standings since the All-Star Break:
Braves 31-24
Mets 30-25
Nats 28-26
Phillies 23-30
Marlins 17-34

A remotely respectable June and they'd be in this weak NLE race.

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 Post subject: Re: Pythagorean records
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:02 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Pyth is pretty meaningless. It's based merely on run differential and runs are a byproduct of sequencing which is arguably random. By base runs (underlying peripherals) which is more sequencing neutral, if you will, the Mets record would be the same as they've played the games to. So basically they are what their record says they are.


I agree except its interesting to see the anomalies...

Nothing particularly stands out as a Ms strength yet they are 15 games above...

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 Post subject: Re: Pythagorean records
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:32 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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jdawginsc wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Pyth is pretty meaningless. It's based merely on run differential and runs are a byproduct of sequencing which is arguably random. By base runs (underlying peripherals) which is more sequencing neutral, if you will, the Mets record would be the same as they've played the games to. So basically they are what their record says they are.


I agree except its interesting to see the anomalies...

Nothing particularly stands out as a Ms strength yet they are 15 games above...

They have a ridiculous record in 1 run games iirc.


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