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?
Poll ended at Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:22 pm
Villines 39%  39%  [ 9 ]
Thompson 26%  26%  [ 6 ]
Wahl 35%  35%  [ 8 ]
Total votes : 23
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 Post subject: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:22 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:30 pm 
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Has anyone nominated Vilera?


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:52 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Has anyone nominated Vilera?



Carpio and Gilliam are next so no not yet.

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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:03 pm 
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Taking Wahl here

Confused as to why anyone would choose Villines over Wahl


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:57 pm 
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Villines here thought I had Palmer.

I nominated Vilera awhile ago, but this is about right.

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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:03 pm 
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bygranddesign wrote:
Taking Wahl here

Confused as to why anyone would choose Villines over Wahl


I did, which goes against my usual mantra and a trope I criticize often - people tend to defer to the guy they haven't seen fail - but I make exceptions for older relief-only types.

If those guys don't dominate the first go around the league, its not usually going to happen for them unless there's a total reinvention. Bobby Wahl will pitch next year at 27; he's not developing more than what he is now. and major leaguers saw his pitches well without any tape on him. Thats a death knell, to me. Ditto Jacob Rhame. Ditto Jamie Callahan. Etc. Those big armed guys should dominate their first run through - they're not sequencing or whatever. Its 10-15 pitch spurts of throwing their best stuff at guys who haven't seen them before and its supposed to be plus stuff. All the advantages are with the pitcher.

Here's another way to look at Wahl: Billy Beane, knowing full well his spending constraints, sought bullpen help this year. He chose to throw Wahl into a deal knowing he'd get 20 innings of Familia back in return for 6 potential years of Wahl who had no further development to go. He did it. Beane ain't stupid. John Ricco isn't fleecing Beane.


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:06 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Villines here thought I had Palmer.

I nominated Vilera awhile ago, but this is about right.



Vilera noted. Carpio, Gilliam, Vilera next 3.

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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:20 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
Taking Wahl here

Confused as to why anyone would choose Villines over Wahl


I did, which goes against my usual mantra and a trope I criticize often - people tend to defer to the guy they haven't seen fail - but I make exceptions for older relief-only types.

If those guys don't dominate the first go around the league, its not usually going to happen for them unless there's a total reinvention. Bobby Wahl will pitch next year at 27; he's not developing more than what he is now. and major leaguers saw his pitches well without any tape on him. Thats a death knell, to me. Ditto Jacob Rhame. Ditto Jamie Callahan. Etc. Those big armed guys should dominate their first run through - they're not sequencing or whatever. Its 10-15 pitch spurts of throwing their best stuff at guys who haven't seen them before and its supposed to be plus stuff. All the advantages are with the pitcher.

Here's another way to look at Wahl: Billy Beane, knowing full well his spending constraints, sought bullpen help this year. He chose to throw Wahl into a deal knowing he'd get 20 innings of Familia back in return for 6 potential years of Wahl who had no further development to go. He did it. Beane ain't stupid. John Ricco isn't fleecing Beane.


Appreciate the detailed explanation but don’t agree with some of your conclusions

He pitched 5 innings in the majors. I don’t think you can make any type of real determination based on that

In regards to Beane and the trade. The A’s got a great closer and traded a struggling injured 3rd basemen and Wahl. I was underwhelmed. But there had to be some recognition of value from both sides - neither side is stupid. I don’t think Beane was doing a fist bump. He needed the certainty of dominance from familia and gave up a promising arm in Wahl.

I would pose this question

If Beane had Villines in his system and offered him instead of Wahl - who would you take?

I think clearly the guy who dominated the upper minors with a plus plus fastball had the greater value ... then a drafted college senior who dominated A ball hitters with less than plus stuff


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:31 pm 
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bygranddesign wrote:
I think clearly the guy who dominated the upper minors with a plus plus fastball had the greater value ... then a drafted college senior who dominated A ball hitters with less than plus stuff


Again, this sort of works the opposite way for me. In a vacuum, sure. But there's nothing really to Wahl other than his stuff, and in his first go-around (13 innings between 17 and 18), he's allowed 26 baserunners, let us about 32% hard hits, has a scary batted ball profile, etc. These are all TINY samples, but again, with older relief-only types, I just don't need a huge sample. These guys should be dominant their first time through - nobody had tape on them, nobody knows tendencies, you're coming in for 10-15 pitch stints to give it your absolute best stuff. If you're getting hit in those appearances, I'm moving on. Again, he's 27. Its not going to get better from here stuff-wise and I'm skeptical he's making some major change to add deception, improve command, etc. He is what he is. Like Jacob Rhame which we saw at the end of 2017, the more the league sees him, the more likely the advantage will swing the other way, not back with Wahl.

So of course its the whole "I haven't seen Villanes struggle yet" so I'll go with him. But I just don't have patience for relief-only types if they struggle out of the gate. Next.

(I also think you're going a little nuts with the "plus plus" stuff. 95-96 isn't Plus Plus from the right side out of the pen anymore. Its closer to average).


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:38 pm 
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MLB pipeline had Wahl with a 70 grade fastball

He is upper 90’s .. touching 100

He is the better bullpen prospect

It doesn’t mean that Villines might not end up better

But Wahl has better value right now


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:46 pm 
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http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php? ... 8&s_type=2

Not to play semantics, but upper 90s - touching 100 isn't true based on what he's shown so far.

Its 95/96 based on the 95% confidence interval over the first 200 fastballs he's thrown in the majors.


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 Post subject: Re: #27 prospect run-off Villines vs. Thompson vs. Wahl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:50 pm 
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If Wahl's fastball at 95-96 MPH is closer to average now, what does that mean for Villines' fastball? Does that mean that he's is now considered way way way below average?


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