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Love it! 9%  9%  [ 5 ]
Like it! 23%  23%  [ 13 ]
It's fine! 32%  32%  [ 18 ]
It's terrible! 37%  37%  [ 21 ]
Total votes : 57
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 Post subject: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:37 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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Just the trade as a standalone move...

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:40 pm 
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I voted that I liked it, and nmigliore made an excellent post in the Cano/Diaz thread that I wanted to post here:
Quote:
After the details have settled and I've let this trade marinate in my head, these are my thoughts:

First, I think you really need to view it as 2 separate moves.

1) Swarzak and Bruce for Cano and $20M

Mets get rid of two pieces that are arguably replacement level players on bad contracts. Bruce in particular was a horrible fit on this roster. With all of the salaries/cash exchanging hands the Mets basically get Cano for 5/60. If you view Cano as 3-win player in 2019, which may be underweight, there's a fair chance he's worth $60M over the next few years even after accounting for decline. The main takeaway though is that the Mets *need* to win now. You can't go and acquire a 36 year old player with the idea of competing in 2021 or to a lesser degree 2020. This move says the Mets want to win in 2019 and we'll need to see the rest of the offseason reflect that.

2) Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista for Diaz

It stings to give up Kelenic and Dunn but I'm not at all surprised by the cost. Diaz is arguably the best reliever in the game, he's young, and he's still pre-arb with 4 more years of control. If the Mariners traded Diaz alone they probably would've gotten a better return. I've seen people like Buster Olney routinely argue the Mets would've been better off using money to sign one of the free agent relievers but all of those guys are inferior and older than Diaz, and the Mets can still sign any of them to *pair* with Diaz. By doing that the Mets would improve the bullpen significantly in a 2-for-the-price-of-1 type of way (in terms of salary added). Simply, adding Diaz improves the Mets at league minimum cost ($) and thus allows the Mets to use their limited budget on other holes.

The reasons I'm skeptical of this trade is because I don't trust this team will do what's necessary to put the 2019 team over the top (trading Thor at this point would be ridiculous and yet those rumors are still swirling)... BUT they have the whole winter to prove me wrong on that point. Secondly, while I'm *very* happy we didn't give up McNeil, I'm concerned about what his role will be. There is absolutely an argument that Cano-for-McNeil at 2B is a lateral move. I'd like to see McNeil at 3B but I don't know if that will happen. I guess it's possible they put him there with Frazier at 1B until the service time shenanigans are thru with Alonso? We'll see. But unless Frazier turns back the clock, something will be wrong if McNeil doesn't see 400+ PA in 2019.

As for what the Mets should do next... there's plenty of holes still to be filled. Jason Vargas shouldn't be the reason to avoid adding another starting pitcher, just like adding Edwin Diaz shouldn't be a barrier to adding more relievers to the bullpen. I don't see the Mets signing AJ Pollock due to cost/injury history but frankly he'd be a terrific fit in this outfield now with Nimmo/Conforto (rightfully) flanking him in a corner. Catcher is still a major need. The Mets made a win-now move by acquiring Cano and Diaz, now they need to go all in. Selling Cano/Diaz as the big get and making small, trimming-the-edges-of-the-roster type moves won't cut it.

Ball is in your court, BVW and Wilpons.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:43 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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oh come on people. After 8 years of timidity and hoarding of precious prospects (with little payoff for the effort), here is a bold stroke that certainly makes the team better in the short run. In the long run, there will be other prospects to replace the ones we gave up.

Have to applaud the effort here. But obviously, it's just rd 1. There will be other moves that provide greater context for individual transactions.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:51 pm 
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I'm fine with it, but it can't be the only move.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:55 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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There isn't anything here that couldn't have been done better by holding on to the prospects and simply spending money.

But, you know.

Mets.


8)

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:00 pm 
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Terrible. Poor use of resources. I think its going to blow up in BVW's face.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:06 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:29 pm
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I like the trade... it accomplishes the following things...

- Improves our offense in 2019 Cano > Bruce
- Improves our bullpen in 2019 Diaz > Swarzak
- Lowers payroll in 2019
- Gives fan base hope team is looking to Win Now!

However, I hate it for the following reasons:

I felt like we gave up a lot...maybe too much for the return.
Kellenic is likely a future star in the making.
A 41 year old Cano making 20 mil is not ideal for future payrolls...

Can I vote twice?!?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:13 pm 
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I think it helped with a few issues (bullpen, what do you with Jay Bruce, and Cano may end up being an upgrade over Frazier), but I think the Mets gave up too much.

So good for the 2019-2021 Mets, but I don't love it.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:18 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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TomInNC wrote:
I'm fine with it, but it can't be the only move.

Yep, basically this. I think the move is fine but is heavily contingent on the Mets doing more this offseason.

I'm stealing this graph from Jeff Sullivan's piece on FG on great mid-30's players aging from 36 onward: https://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-cont ... -to-40.png

This certainly doesn't mean Cano will age that way, but history is always good for some perspective. At 36, these players are usually still pretty good, even at 37 they are okay. But it falls off significantly after that. This move emphasizes winning now, so we need to see everything else follow that.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:27 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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nmigliore wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
I'm fine with it, but it can't be the only move.

Yep, basically this. I think the move is fine but is heavily contingent on the Mets doing more this offseason.

I'm stealing this graph from Jeff Sullivan's piece on FG on great mid-30's players aging from 36 onward: https://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-cont ... -to-40.png

This certainly doesn't mean Cano will age that way, but history is always good for some perspective. At 36, these players are usually still pretty good, even at 37 they are okay. But it falls off significantly after that. This move emphasizes winning now, so we need to see everything else follow that.

Well, you can walk and chew gum at the same time. I wouldn't want them to put all their eggs in the 19/20 basket. That could leave a big hangover potentially.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:38 pm 
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I don't like it and I don't hate it.

Taken as two separate trades it is more palatable.

Upside: eliminates two bad contracts and grabs a closer with 4 controllable years. It is definitely not Sandy. No Bruce which makes me happy.

Downside: overpay in prospects for taking on what becomes $13m a year deal for an aging second baseman with PED questions looming. Lost dollars in two signing bonuses need to be factored in as well. It did not make a dent in any pressing need other than the pen.

I think there were other routes they could have shopped instead of monomania toward this particular route...sort of smells like bold without due diligence.

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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on the trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:00 pm 
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Hate it. BUT - when Kelenic makes the HOF, bumping these threads will give some of us something to do besides shuffleboard in our retirement communities, knock on wood.


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