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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:02 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
degromination wrote:
Still don't get the naysayers on this one. We got cheap talent, for no prospects, no long term commitment, and added flexibility. We are not good enough a squad for people to think we are above "recruiting over" nearly any position.


The only way to truly satisfy the masses is signing a monster deal - until the end of that deal when everyone complains about the overpay. See: Wright, David and Cespedes, Yoenis.


Mets would rather overpay for a hedge than pay a little more for a superior player. All their decisions are guided by risk aversion and a desire to be in it at the break.

The Mets make one moderate priced "non-fit and not-enough" move like this every single year to keep the wolves at bay.

This is a stretch. The Mets rarely went outside of the "Mets circle" for a move like this. In the past, this would have been Jose Reyes as their 'depth move'... bc they would have squinted hard enough and found that he satisfied certain conditions: can stand at several positions, can run, can SH, had familiarity with the organization and all its quirks, and would come cheaply. This time around that could have been AsCab. They almost certainly would have gotten AsCab for less than Lowrie. But two things now stand out: Lowrie is better than AsCab; and BVW seems to have successfully broken the inane requirement that the org had to have some previous connection/comfort level with any player in order to give any serious consideration to him.

As to the last point, sure, we're seeing Brodie connections play a role here, but this has manifested in a good way to this point, with Cano, Lowrie and prob even his connection to Jake (where we prob would have seen the team hold their ground to a $14M offer).

Beyond that, one could argue specific trades that went down last w/e, but the fact that this FO is now clearly engaged with other teams in the league is a good thing in the big pix... as opposed to being stubbornly disengaged from the rest of the league except when 'forced to' in July and relying largely on internal options, players with past connections, or scrap heap projects.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:34 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Beyond that, one could argue specific trades that went down last w/e, but the fact that this FO is now clearly engaged with other teams in the league is a good thing in the big pix... as opposed to being stubbornly disengaged from the rest of the league except when 'forced to' in July and relying largely on internal options, players with past connections, or scrap heap projects.


Yeah, Sandy Co. dealt with the rest of the league as if there was bad blood between the Mets and everyone else. What I think didn't get enough discussion is that when your engagements are very targeted and specific and only at certain times of year, you miss the opportunity for unforeseen deals to develop, which in turn makes marginal improvements significantly less likely. I love that this regime can engage with multiple teams at once and is actively developing relationships with other front offices as opposed to sitting on their hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:58 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
degromination wrote:
Still don't get the naysayers on this one. We got cheap talent, for no prospects, no long term commitment, and added flexibility. We are not good enough a squad for people to think we are above "recruiting over" nearly any position.


The only way to truly satisfy the masses is signing a monster deal - until the end of that deal when everyone complains about the overpay. See: Wright, David and Cespedes, Yoenis.


Mets would rather overpay for a hedge than pay a little more for a superior player. All their decisions are guided by risk aversion and a desire to be in it at the break.

The Mets make one moderate priced "non-fit and not-enough" move like this every single year to keep the wolves at bay.


Well, I think the Mets would rather underpay and figure out fit later than overpay for a superstar - we know that.

But as far as this goes - if you take as a given we're not going in on Harper and Machado - hard to see how the above note really holding here. Who is the "little more for a superior player" you've been envisioning this offseason?

They offered Grandal 4/60, were presumably offering a huge prospect cost (with an intent to extend?) for Realmuto, and only pivoted to Ramos when it appears the cost differential was simply way too much for what may be a minimal talent difference - I mean, thats being smart, no?

They paid top of the marker for Familia rather than waiting for a deal (Soria?) to come apparent for that 2nd reliever.

Now with Lowrie - is the thought that they signed him vs. Pollack as a way to save money by sacrificing the better player? I'm not wholly sure Pollack is a better player than Lowrie. Lowrie's been better lately, surely. Pollack presumably has the 2015 player in there somewhere, but short of that...

There's a legit complaint the Mets didn't go for Harper and Machado, of course. But hard to say they prioritized something other than getting better with all the other moves they made.

My guess on Lowrie vs. Pollack - Pollack is the easier fit. He also may be stil asking for way more, as mentioned may not be any better, and costs the pick when we've been trading from the farm a lot. If they think McNeil can handle an OF corner - and he's played there before, which separates him from the usual Lutz, Satin, Flores, Rivera, Reyes, et al "He's going to play OF!!" stuff, than I guess they didn't necessarily care much on position, as McNeil either would've saw a lot of 3B and 1B work if Pollack was signed, or now will see a lot of OF corner work with Lagares/Broxton put in late for defense.

I think we're done in the lineup. I bet there's still another arm or 2 added. And if a Lagares deal presents itself, they'll do that and carry Rajai instead as the 5th guy (and Broxton gets elevated a bit).


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:31 pm 
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I think Pollock is still an option. In fact, if the Phillies and Nats sign Machado and Harper, respectively, Pollack becomes almost a must-do for the Mets in order to stay competitive. Pollock could sign a deal that gives him an opt out. Must wait and see for sure as there is still is a LOT of movement that is going to emerge, particularly in the NL East.

As to Lowrie, he may only be a four month rental. He gives us a bat until Ces comes back and then is traded at the deadline for something we need to get to October. I don't think this is far out thinking. In the meantime, it would be great if we could trade Frazier and Lagares for a RP with a bad contract.

This has been rather fun, to say the least....


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:55 pm 
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Joefrompgh wrote:
I think Pollock is still an option. In fact, if the Phillies and Nats sign Machado and Harper, respectively, Pollack becomes almost a must-do for the Mets in order to stay competitive. Pollock could sign a deal that gives him an opt out. Must wait and see for sure as there is still is a LOT of movement that is going to emerge, particularly in the NL East.

As to Lowrie, he may only be a four month rental. He gives us a bat until Ces comes back and then is traded at the deadline for something we need to get to October. I don't think this is far out thinking. In the meantime, it would be great if we could trade Frazier and Lagares for a RP with a bad contract.

This has been rather fun, to say the least....

No chance the Mets signed Lowrie to a 2 year deal with flipping him in mid-season in mind. If anything, this is another move that signals that they aren't counting on Ces to contribute anything this season.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:11 pm 
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Long standing problem in Mets land - nobody ever has to beat out anyone for playing time
Those days are over now. Love it!

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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:36 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
At least now when Mickey makes moves and does his version of juggling it's with talent and not with Reyes or AGon


Mickey just needed to get Jose going. That’s all.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:36 am 
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jdawginsc wrote:
And it basically buries Dom Smith, Cecchini, TJ Rivera to the point where they have no value in trade...


I think the three above did a fine job of torpedoing their trade value without the help a Jed Lowrie signing.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:44 am 
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deviljets wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
And it basically buries Dom Smith, Cecchini, TJ Rivera to the point where they have no value in trade...


I think the three above did a fine job of torpedoing their trade value without the help a Jed Lowrie signing.


That's not fair to TJ who got hurt and had produced in his limited opportunities. The other two I agree with, Cecch has been overrated here for years and Dom Smith lol - so much for being a high floor player.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:54 am 
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Current (new) management can't tie themselves up trying to make nice on mistakes of past management. They have no time to let Smith, TJ and Cecchini sink or swim in the majors. They need to make judgements and put the best team they can afford on the field.

Sometimes prospects bust, sometimes they get hurt, sometimes they don't get a fair shot. That's the business.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:34 am 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
deviljets wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
And it basically buries Dom Smith, Cecchini, TJ Rivera to the point where they have no value in trade...


I think the three above did a fine job of torpedoing their trade value without the help a Jed Lowrie signing.


That's not fair to TJ who got hurt and had produced in his limited opportunities. The other two I agree with, Cecch has been overrated here for years and Dom Smith lol - so much for being a high floor player.


TJ Rivera is a hit tool without much else on either side of the ball. It is a cool story he made it to where he did, but he was someone who had a limited window anyway. He's 30. You can't just hold a spot for him into perpetuity. He has played in 1.5 years now, and is likely even more limited defensively than he already was. They've got control on him so if he's needed, he's available, but you can't plan an offseason around holding open TJ Rivera's role for him.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign INF Jed Lowrie
PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:07 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Well, I think the Mets would rather underpay and figure out fit later than overpay for a superstar - we know that.

But as far as this goes - if you take as a given we're not going in on Harper and Machado - hard to see how the above note really holding here. Who is the "little more for a superior player" you've been envisioning this offseason?

They offered Grandal 4/60, were presumably offering a huge prospect cost (with an intent to extend?) for Realmuto, and only pivoted to Ramos when it appears the cost differential was simply way too much for what may be a minimal talent difference - I mean, thats being smart, no?

They paid top of the marker for Familia rather than waiting for a deal (Soria?) to come apparent for that 2nd reliever.

Now with Lowrie - is the thought that they signed him vs. Pollack as a way to save money by sacrificing the better player? I'm not wholly sure Pollack is a better player than Lowrie. Lowrie's been better lately, surely. Pollack presumably has the 2015 player in there somewhere, but short of that...

There's a legit complaint the Mets didn't go for Harper and Machado, of course. But hard to say they prioritized something other than getting better with all the other moves they made.

My guess on Lowrie vs. Pollack - Pollack is the easier fit. He also may be stil asking for way more, as mentioned may not be any better, and costs the pick when we've been trading from the farm a lot. If they think McNeil can handle an OF corner - and he's played there before, which separates him from the usual Lutz, Satin, Flores, Rivera, Reyes, et al "He's going to play OF!!" stuff, than I guess they didn't necessarily care much on position, as McNeil either would've saw a lot of 3B and 1B work if Pollack was signed, or now will see a lot of OF corner work with Lagares/Broxton put in late for defense.

I think we're done in the lineup. I bet there's still another arm or 2 added. And if a Lagares deal presents itself, they'll do that and carry Rajai instead as the 5th guy (and Broxton gets elevated a bit).


Oh, and I forgot - the Mets were rumored to be in on Dozier as well, so clearly did't prioritize the "cheaper hedge" there. Plenty to criticize the team about, but I think just blanket-ly applying old talking points to this offseason is a mistake. This is a different approach, under the same restrictive overall parameters that we know hampers to ultimate ability to ever go "all in".


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