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 Post subject: Re: With all of the new depth...
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:39 pm 
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Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:56 pm
Posts: 61933
tejdog1 wrote:
7 Nimmo
6 Rosario
4 Cano
5 Lowrie
9 Conforto
2 Ramos
3 Frazier
8 Broxton

BENCH: d'Arnaud, Lagares, McNeil, TJR, some fifth guy

deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, Vargas (ugh)
Diaz, Familia, Lugo, Zamora, Avlian, Gsellman, one of the kiddie flamers


JD Davis is 100% on the OD roster. Eno Sarris said he heard the Mets were considering using him in a 2 way role - ostensibly to carry a 5th bench player rather than 8th reliever.

Maybe TJR is in competition for last bench spot. But he hasn't played in 1.5 years and his spot prior to that was far less secure than Mets fans want to believe it is. So, yeah, thats a hard maybe for him, and certainly he's the next guy bumped if they do sign another MLB deal.


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 Post subject: Re: With all of the new depth...
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:49 pm 
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Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 3:03 pm
Posts: 1016
tejdog1 wrote:
7 Nimmo
6 Rosario
4 Cano
5 Lowrie
9 Conforto
2 Ramos
3 Frazier
8 Broxton

BENCH: d'Arnaud, Lagares, McNeil, TJR, some fifth guy

deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, Vargas (ugh)
Diaz, Familia, Lugo, Zamora, Avlian, Gsellman, one of the kiddie flamers


My opening day lineup:
Nimmo, Lowrie, Cano, Ramos, Conforto, Frazier, Rosario and whomever is in CF.

_________________
- 2019 will see the Mets win 87 and contend for a playoff spot.
- Offense will be spotty, but the Pitching will carry them.
- Conforto/Wheeler and Kay will have big breakout seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: With all of the new depth...
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:03 pm 
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Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:22 am
Posts: 3110
Holland isn't a significant upgrade over Vargas.

He obviously had a much better 2018 looking solely at something like ERA, but xFIP and SIERA were much closer than you might think. We saw Vargas start to "normalize" late last season after his brutal(ly unlucky) first half. Basically, it was a reverse of what Vargas experienced in 2017. Things typically find their way back to the mean over a long enough sample size.

I think going forward they represent similar value. If both were free agents I would target Holland because of age and "stuff", but since we're already paying Vargas I don't think it makes much sense to bring in a pitcher the advanced stats point towards giving you similar production, at least not if the idea is to sign Holland because he's going to take Vargas' spot in the rotation and give you significantly better results.

I'd rather use that money towards any one of Ottavino, Wilson or Warren.


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