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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 am 
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Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:38 pm
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Using wRC+ as a catch-all stat is silly, and Danny Muno is frankly a stupid comparison for a variety of reasons (there's a pretty big gap in bat-to-ball ability there in favor of Guillorme and don't get me started on the positional value). Sam Haggerty is the Danny Muno in our system (low hit-tool, little power, 2B/3B "versatility", walks a lot).

Luis Guillorme gets on base and plays SS well. That skillset is worthy of giving a look to.


What’s silly is doing the mental gymnastics to portray a year in which he had a .330 slugging in AA as a good offensive year.

Positional value all you want- the only years he hasnt had just “no go” type slugging is in Vegas and the juiced IL where Dilson Herrera, Ruben Tejada and Arismenday Alcantara are sluggers. That’s the point. You’re predicating your whole argument on this presumption of on base skills that will not translate at this level- he doesn’t have any sort of great hit tool and MLB pitchers aren’t going to work around him when he’s no threat. That was the comp - we’ve seen the high walk rate with slap (or worse) hitter skill set before. It doesn’t work up here. Pitchers and defense adjust. If Guillorme puts up your proposed .330 OBP with a .300 SLG- no, that’s not a starter anywhere. Or if it is, it’s a starter where fans are griping daily.

People love to talk in the hypothetical about what constitués a starter when guys are prospects and forget that if those guys became starters in MLB they’d curse daily about the roster mismanagement that BVW was committing.


People four years ago were saying Guillorme's on-base skills wouldn't translate at the upper-levels of the minors because of his lack of power. Well, those people were wrong.

Guillorme's a pest. He makes contact. He fouls away bad strikes. He has a great eye. Sure, pitchers are going to be able to more effectively challenge him at the major league level, but his on-base skills, which are real, aren't going to suddenly evaporate. He just needs to get acclimated and stop swinging at pitches that'll induce weak contact.

How fully those on-base skills translate makes the difference between whether he's a defensive sub or whether he's a second-division starter, anyways. The former is his floor. But it's crazy silly that people act like he's got no shot of being a major league player at all when he's a 24-year-old SS who plays good defense. He'd be a bit of a prospect even if he was putting up 80 wRC+s right now -- again, Wilfredo Tovar is still bouncing around. Luis Guillorme has shown some skills at the plate. Tovar never has.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:32 am 
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There's no point in not seeing what Guillorme can do. You can be skeptical all you want, and you don't think he'll be able to give you enough glove or OBP to make up for the dearth of power, fair enough, but there's no point in not seeing what he can do. If you'd prefer the alternative of actively giving playing time to Adeiny Hechavarria and Ruben Tejada in a lost season then you deserve it this off-season when the Mets sign more washed up vets to fill in as "depth."


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:11 am 
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Why do we want a “second division starter” anyway?

If you’re shooting to be a second division club then who cares who the shortstop is


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:17 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Using wRC+ as a catch-all stat is silly, and Danny Muno is frankly a stupid comparison for a variety of reasons (there's a pretty big gap in bat-to-ball ability there in favor of Guillorme and don't get me started on the positional value). Sam Haggerty is the Danny Muno in our system (low hit-tool, little power, 2B/3B "versatility", walks a lot).

Luis Guillorme gets on base and plays SS well. That skillset is worthy of giving a look to.


What’s silly is doing the mental gymnastics to portray a year in which he had a .330 slugging in AA as a good offensive year.

Positional value all you want- the only years he hasnt had just “no go” type slugging is in Vegas and the juiced IL where Dilson Herrera, Ruben Tejada and Arismenday Alcantara are sluggers. That’s the point. You’re predicating your whole argument on this presumption of on base skills that will not translate at this level- he doesn’t have any sort of great hit tool and MLB pitchers aren’t going to work around him when he’s no threat. That was the comp - we’ve seen the high walk rate with slap (or worse) hitter skill set before. It doesn’t work up here. Pitchers and defense adjust. If Guillorme puts up your proposed .330 OBP with a .300 SLG- no, that’s not a starter anywhere. Or if it is, it’s a starter where fans are griping daily.

People love to talk in the hypothetical about what constitués a starter when guys are prospects and forget that if those guys became starters in MLB they’d curse daily about the roster mismanagement that BVW was committing.


People four years ago were saying Guillorme's on-base skills wouldn't translate at the upper-levels of the minors because of his lack of power. Well, those people were wrong.

Guillorme's a pest. He makes contact. He fouls away bad strikes. He has a great eye. Sure, pitchers are going to be able to more effectively challenge him at the major league level, but his on-base skills, which are real, aren't going to suddenly evaporate. He just needs to get acclimated and stop swinging at pitches that'll induce weak contact.

How fully those on-base skills translate makes the difference between whether he's a defensive sub or whether he's a second-division starter, anyways. The former is his floor. But it's crazy silly that people act like he's got no shot of being a major league player at all when he's a 24-year-old SS who plays good defense. He'd be a bit of a prospect even if he was putting up 80 wRC+s right now -- again, Wilfredo Tovar is still bouncing around. Luis Guillorme has shown some skills at the plate. Tovar never has.


Wilfredo Tovar has 68 career MLB PA. I don’t know why that’s being brought up as something in Guullormes favor but if your point is he can have Tovar’s career- sure, I agree.

Carrying a no bat guy who is an average defensive SS is a terrible roster move. If you’re starting SS is so bad that you need that guy, the problem is at the starting SS level.

As we’ve seen this year and in years past, that bench spot is one we’re always going to whine about. The only difference between whining about Hech now and whining about Guillorme in 3 years is time.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:19 am 
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TomInNC wrote:
Why do we want a “second division starter” anyway?

If you’re shooting to be a second division club then who cares who the shortstop is


Well a second-division starter would also happen to be a really, really good back-up.

And Rosario hasn't been close to a second-division starter at SS and Andres Gimenez won't be ready by opening day next year. If Luis Guillorme can be a second-division starter then you can not sign Freddy Galvis and allocate resources elsewhere.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:19 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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TomInNC wrote:
Why do we want a “second division starter” anyway?

If you’re shooting to be a second division club then who cares who the shortstop is


Amen. This theoretical second division thing makes me nuts. People love to tout this stuff when guys are prospects and then when they’re here and playing it’s always “ugh can’t we improve on this guy!?”

We lived thru an era of a no power average defensive SS who made contact a lot. Everybody wanted him gone. When you use him as a comp now it’s considered an offensive word.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:25 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

What’s silly is doing the mental gymnastics to portray a year in which he had a .330 slugging in AA as a good offensive year.

Positional value all you want- the only years he hasnt had just “no go” type slugging is in Vegas and the juiced IL where Dilson Herrera, Ruben Tejada and Arismenday Alcantara are sluggers. That’s the point. You’re predicating your whole argument on this presumption of on base skills that will not translate at this level- he doesn’t have any sort of great hit tool and MLB pitchers aren’t going to work around him when he’s no threat. That was the comp - we’ve seen the high walk rate with slap (or worse) hitter skill set before. It doesn’t work up here. Pitchers and defense adjust. If Guillorme puts up your proposed .330 OBP with a .300 SLG- no, that’s not a starter anywhere. Or if it is, it’s a starter where fans are griping daily.

People love to talk in the hypothetical about what constitués a starter when guys are prospects and forget that if those guys became starters in MLB they’d curse daily about the roster mismanagement that BVW was committing.


People four years ago were saying Guillorme's on-base skills wouldn't translate at the upper-levels of the minors because of his lack of power. Well, those people were wrong.

Guillorme's a pest. He makes contact. He fouls away bad strikes. He has a great eye. Sure, pitchers are going to be able to more effectively challenge him at the major league level, but his on-base skills, which are real, aren't going to suddenly evaporate. He just needs to get acclimated and stop swinging at pitches that'll induce weak contact.

How fully those on-base skills translate makes the difference between whether he's a defensive sub or whether he's a second-division starter, anyways. The former is his floor. But it's crazy silly that people act like he's got no shot of being a major league player at all when he's a 24-year-old SS who plays good defense. He'd be a bit of a prospect even if he was putting up 80 wRC+s right now -- again, Wilfredo Tovar is still bouncing around. Luis Guillorme has shown some skills at the plate. Tovar never has.


Wilfredo Tovar has 68 career MLB PA. I don’t know why that’s being brought up as something in Guullormes favor but if your point is he can have Tovar’s career- sure, I agree.

Carrying a no bat guy who is an average defensive SS is a terrible roster move. If you’re starting SS is so bad that you need that guy, the problem is at the starting SS level.

As we’ve seen this year and in years past, that bench spot is one we’re always going to whine about. The only difference between whining about Hech now and whining about Guillorme in 3 years is time.


You keep calling Guillorme an average defensive SS when every scout who's ever seen him has called him anywhere from plus to plus-plus defensively. I know that defensive scouting reports are often wrong but if you're going to insist that he's average there when that defies the consensus on him and there's no evidence yet to prove the opposite then I'm not sure why we're even having this discussion. Keep an open mind. It is never too late to give up your prejudices.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:31 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
Why do we want a “second division starter” anyway?

If you’re shooting to be a second division club then who cares who the shortstop is


Amen. This theoretical second division thing makes me nuts. People love to tout this stuff when guys are prospects and then when they’re here and playing it’s always “ugh can’t we improve on this guy!?”

We lived thru an era of a no power average defensive SS who made contact a lot. Everybody wanted him gone. When you use him as a comp now it’s considered an offensive word.


Ruben Tejada was barely an average SS and there's worlds between Guillorme and Tejada there. You're just being obtuse at this point. "He won't get on base." "He's an average glove." "Even if he does get on base and field well why would we want him?"

You're moving goalposts constantly and it's silly. Guillorme, if he gets on base at a decent level and fields like we expect, will be a decent piece. Not a sexy piece, but a decent piece. Okay?

Can we all agree that in this hypothetical that Guillorme would be useful? Can we agree that Anthony Kay would be a useful piece if he can pitch better than Steven Matz? Can we agree that JD Davis would be a useful piece if he could be passable at 3B and not horrible? Can we agree that the earth isn't flat? Or are you going to keep looking for reasons why this player that you've decided for whatever reason isn't a major leaguer even if he becomes a useful major leaguer just like Nitey does with Alonso?


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:34 am 
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Putting aside that hottakes is the high guy on Guillorme, the reason this even an issue now is because we are all looking past Rosie as a SS now. And without a clear succession plan in the near term, Guillorme *should be* given some opportunity. He feels like the latest in a long line of guys they’ve just pre-judged and dismissed without actually looking at. My expectations are admittedly low for LG but given that Rosie is pretty unplayable as a ML SS, what is there to lose by giving Guillorme some run in the 2nd half other than to impair Rosie’s market value and/or confidence? May as well see Rosie play some CF while we’re at it. The reasons for not doing this in season kind of fall away when you’re mired in 4th place.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:34 am 
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And the point regarding Tovar was that this guy who's hit way worse at every level than Guillorme still gets looks. If you can play SS decently, you'll get looks. Luis Guillorme can play SS decently. Thus Danny Muno comparisons are silly. Danny Muno would have gotten a much longer look if he had the ability to play SS decently.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:39 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Putting aside that hottakes is the high guy on Guillorme, the reason this even an issue now is because we are all looking past Rosie as a SS now. And without a clear succession plan in the near term, Guillorme *should be* given some opportunity. He feels like the latest in a long line of guys they’ve just pre-judged and dismissed without actually looking at. My expectations are admittedly low for LG but given that Rosie is pretty unplayable as a ML SS, what is there to lose by giving Guillorme some run in the 2nd half other than to impair Rosie’s market value and/or confidence? May as well see Rosie play some CF while we’re at it. The reasons for not doing this in season kind of fall away when you’re mired in 4th place.


I mean, yeah, that's really the point I've been trying to make about Guillorme the past month and I feel like MJ > Y is just being obtuse. I don't care if you don't like Guillorme as a prospect. Whatever. I think he's underrated but I also understand there aren't a ton of guys who are zero power guys who are more than up-and-down guys.

The point is that if you're conceding that a) this is a lost season and that b) Rosario isn't your long-term SS, then you're going to need a bridge between Rosario and whoever the next "SS of the future" is. And Guillorme is a guy who's considered a good fielder and has shown some ability at the plate, so you need him to show you whether or not you can count on him instead of signing Freddy Galvis or the equivalent.


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 Post subject: Re: The too early, mets top 10 prosects right now thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:49 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
And the point regarding Tovar was that this guy who's hit way worse at every level than Guillorme still gets looks. If you can play SS decently, you'll get looks. Luis Guillorme can play SS decently. Thus Danny Muno comparisons are silly. Danny Muno would have gotten a much longer look if he had the ability to play SS decently.


Tovar has 68 major league PAs. What are you talking about “getting looks?” Being an NRI for a tour around the league? Sure,that’s a reasonable career arc.


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